Name: Rudraksh DasGupta
Due Date: October 12, 2017

IB Mathematics SL Internal Assessment Draft Outline Component: Topic Choice

My exploration will be about: Grey swan and black swan events. Black Swan events are unpredictable economical events that occur that alter the lifestyle of a civilization as a whole. Grey swan events are economical events that are predictable to a small percentage, such as .00000001%, make it highly improbable. Using these two types of events, I will use statistics to analyse black and grey swan events in the healthcare industry after the passing of the Affordable Care Act and Obama Care. Black and Grey Swan events for example in this case would be lawmakers finding loopholes in the acts and insurance companies extorting them. I will find the best fit equation to find the amount of people that invest in healthcare after these events. After the finding of this equation, I will predict the amount of people who invest in healthcare after the black and grey swan events subsequent to the potential passing of the health care repeal act by the Trump administration.

The mathematics I will incorporate was/will be learned in:
IB Mathematics SL

Discuss in more detail the area of mathematics used:
IB Math SL Statistics and Probability: I will use the information and math techniques I have leant from stats to find the best fit equation for the resultant healthcare investors.

Evidence of research:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp
Gives general overview of what a Black swan event is
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp
Gives general overview of what a Grey swan event is
https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/091009_Taleb.pdf
Few examples of the events and the theories behind it